Press Conference With Federal Space Agency Director Anatoly Perminov

ESA News from Moscow, Special Issue № 5, April 8, 2005
Permanent Mission in Moscow support site

Anatoly Perminov speaks on the new Federal Space Program 2006-2015, interplanetary manned spaceflight, Clipper reusable space ship, international cooperation, space tourism (Interview to RIA Novosti)

Executive summary:

The Federal Space Program 2006-2015 has been approved by an interdepartmental expert commission on space research and has been presented to the government. Mr. Perminov insists that the 2006 funding of the space program should be drastically increased by 30%.
Speaking about the planetary exploration programs, Mr. Perminov said that Russia possessed unique technologies that could be applied to implement projects of that kind. Moreover, other similar and quite good programs are being currently developed in Russia. The Mars-500 flight simulation experiment will be launched in IMBP in 2006. The experiment that will last for 500 or even 720 days will be supported in real time by the Mission Control Center in Korolev.
The future of the Clipper (Kliper, «Клипер») reusable space ship has been defined. Roscosmos is considering plans to operate Clipper together with ESA and some other countries. Roscosmos intends to display a Clipper mockup at the Le Bourget air show and MAKS this year.
Two space tourists – one from Japan and one from another country – are currently training in Star City. Their flights are scheduled for 2006 and 2007.

Perminov: I’d like to say a few words about our plans. And first of all, I congratulate all those who like space exploration on the approaching Cosmonauts’ Day, April 12 and wish all the media executives and rank-and-file workers to be objective in their coverage of space activities.

Secondly, I would like to speak for the first time today about the future of the Federal Space Program. One may, of course, follow the routine and review the results on the eve of the holiday, and I would be ready to answer such questions. But I would rather talk about the future, what we are planning to do and how we are planning to do it together with our partners and our friends, both internationally and inside the country. And I would like to speak briefly about these matters.

If you look at the trend in the development of space exploration in the world, initially it was a matter of political rivalry.

Moderator: I am sorry, I am the host of his club and I would like to introduce you. I would like to welcome you to RIA Novosti Press Center. And welcome to the press conference by the head of the Russian Space Agency Anatoly Perminov. First of all, I would like to congratulate our guest on the approaching holiday, Cosmonauts’ Day which is a very popular holiday, a national holiday. On the eve of Cosmonauts’ Day I think Anatoly Nikolayevich will tell you about new international projects in the field of meteorology, prevention of global catastrophes, the future of space tourism and other projects we are implementing together with NASA and the European Space Agency. Anatoly Nikolayevich.

Perminov: As I have said, if you look at the trend in the development of space exploration in the world, from the beginning of the space era it was marked by political rivalry between the two leading powers, the United States and the Soviet Union. But now gradually, in addition to ensuring national security, it is increasingly shifting toward meeting the economic and social needs. The space industry is now working in this area and competition has become more economic than political.

If you take the number of countries, at present more than 100 countries are in one way or another engaged in space activities. The world has more than 750, about 800, space objects in orbit. Two countries are the leading powers. The United States, of course, has the largest number of satellites in orbit, and we are in second place.

The space market is growing very rapidly. The services of communications satellites, images of the Earth obtained by remote sensing satellites, launch vehicles, spaceships and rocket engines are all sold and bought. Cooperation on scientific research programs is developing fast, especially international cooperation. The prime example is the International Space Station. At the same time there is a growing awareness that powerful projects can hardly be implemented by any one country singlehanded, both scientifically and financially. So, there are more and more international space exploration projects. The human race is reaching out to other planets – the Moon, Mars, and the deep space. So much for the trend in the development of world space today.

We have been receiving many questions on interplanetary manned flights. People, especially ordinary people, want to know when we will fly to the Moon, what we will build there, how we will feel on Mars and when the Mars mission will take place. As a rule, lay people are more interested in manned space exploration. Specialists, on the other hand, are most of all interested in the unmanned satellites, the structure of the unmanned assets and what missions they perform.

If you look at manned space exploration, there are a lot of projects on offer. Our agency alone has more than 20 proposals on future manned space missions. The costs of implementing these projects is variously estimated at between several tens of billions to hundreds of billions of dollars. Turning to more specific questions, I would like to tell you that our experts expect that manned flights will resume by 2015-2020. As for Mars, that would be about 2030. Before manned flights to the Moon and Mars there will be a huge exploration program carried out by unmanned assets.

So, our approach is that first of all we should accumulate the experience from the operation of the International Space Station. Not only the five main countries – the US, Russia, Canada, Japan and the European Space Agency – but about 14 countries are present at the International Space Station by contributing their know-how and instruments.

And there should be the following stages. We should learn to assembly space systems in the near-Earth orbit. This is the first main objective, and we have learned to do this. You can see that sorties into space have become routine. In fact, humans have worked for five, six and more hours in outer space, they work hard. And they are able to assemble complex systems.

Having learned to do this, it will be possible to plan manned flights to the Moon, Mars and other planets. Initially, it will be a flight to the Moon. Anyway, this is what we are planning in our program. It will be possible to build a station on the Moon surface, and commercial development of Moon resources. This will be followed by flights of unmanned stations to Mars. After all technical aspects have been tested several times for Mars flights, it will be possible to send a manned spacecraft there.

This is the prospect we have considered in terms of interplanetary manned flights. You may have noticed that this is a stage-by-stage plan, this will be done gradually. And it will be more or less possible to finance those activities. We believe that such projects, and this opinion is shared by many countries, including advanced countries in terms of space research and man space flights – there are not too many such countries and it is possible to count them on the fingers of one hand. They have considered international projects, because in financial terms, in scientific terms, such projects are very involved.

Besides, we are planning large-scale activities here, on the Earth. Starting in 2006, we will conduct an experiment, Mars-500, it imitates a Mars flight. A group, perhaps an international crew, at the Medical and Biological Problems Institute, will take part in an experiment in a real time mode. It will imitate a flight to Mars. For the first time ever, flight control systems will be linked with the Mission Control Center. You have been there quite often and you could see that on the left there, there is a big board showing our cosmonauts onboard the International Space Station and all flight parameters. And on the right, one will be able to see this new station, which will work here, on the Earth’s surface. And the Mission Control Center will have full access. This will also allow training specialists at the Mission Control Center. The experiment is to last for 500 days. If everything goes as planned, it may be extended, as we are considering now, to 720 days. Thank you. These are my introductory remarks.

Moderator: Thank you. Let us pass on to questions.

Q: RIA Novosti. Russia’s space research budget is known to be roughly the same size as India’s space research budget. Plans call for increasing this space research budget by about 16 percent this year. What purposes will this budget be spent on? How much more is required to complete the GLONAS system?

Perminov: A very good question. It is a key issue. Unless it is resolved, an organization financed from the budget like we are can hardly deal with problems it faces. So, I would answer it the following way. All budgetary parameters are reflected in the Federal Space Research Program which we are working on now for a period from 2006 through 2015. This is the main federal space research program. It has been approved by an interdepartmental expert commission on space research and has been presented to the government. In fact, it has received all required approvals, the only exceptions being the Ministry for Economic Development and Trade and the Ministry of Finance. On April 8 I will defend this program at the Ministry for Economic Development and Trade. The meeting will be chaired by German Gref. He personally deals with this problem of space research. I mean financing. He considers development prospects himself, and it is very good that a public official of such a scale personally deals with issues.

As for the main directions of our activities, the program fixes the following directions. The first one is ensuring global communications and television broadcasting on the territory of the Russian Federation. You know that we have made certain progress in this sphere recently. We have launched a series of new spacecraft, for communications purposes, Express AM. The Communications Ministry has commissioned them. They have let us broadcast more than two or three channels in Siberia and Far Eastern Russia. Like European Russia, they now receive 12-15 channels. People are certainly pleased with that.

The next one is obtaining remote monitoring data for dealing with mapmaking and monitoring the environment. Studies of natural resources and the development of means for receiving data of remove monitoring. Provision of space, geophysical, hydrometeorological information for consumers. Holding fundamental scientific research in the sphere of astrophysics and the realization of international agreements related to fundamental space research. Manned flights and the realization of international agreements related to the International Space Station. These are the main ones. There also are other directions of activities.

As for your particular question, we believe that it is necessary not just to step up financing and adjusting allocations to inflation. For us to be able to commission space systems we are developing now and those 80-90 percent ready for launch, in the mid-term run – by 2008, 26 space assets should be in orbit. If we do that, it will not only increase our orbital group, but will enable us to cater to the requirements that have been presented to us by all the ministries and agencies.

Is it a realistic task? It is. What kind of financing would be required? It would require an increase of financing by about 30 percent in 2006. Not by 7.8-8 percent as planned, but by 30 percent. Thereafter, the percentage may be smaller, but this increase first has to be made upfront. Then we will have satellites to address every task of the orbital group.

Q: What about absolute figures?

Perminov: In absolute terms, it’s about 24 billion rubles (~$872 million). The current level of financing is 18.5 billion rubles (~$672 million). As you have rightly noted, we are at the level of India in terms of space program funding. The United States is in first place with $15 billion. Then come Japan and Europe, $3 and $2.5 billion for the European Space Agency. But that does not take into account the spending on space exploration by each member country individually. Then come India, Russia and Brazil. Such are the results of financing in 2005 and the outlook for 2006 and beyond.

Q: Some media have been reporting that the future Clipper spaceship can fly to the Moon and farther. Can you elaborate on this? Is it about the Clipper being used to put payloads and people into low orbits before they could be launched from a space platform or will Clipper itself be able to fly to the Moon and beyond?

Perminov: The project has been developed by RKK Energiya. The Soyuz manned spaceships are reliable and they are doing a good job, but they are outdated, especially some of their elements. The environment for the crew is quite difficult, out of the previous century.

It carries a crew of just three. That is not enough. On the other hand, the American Shuttles are big and sophisticated and costly system, with a single launch costing half a billion dollars. And the reliability is somewhat insufficient. That suggests that we need something in-between. This is the niche that may be filled by the Clipper which is currently under consideration. It is designed to carry a crew of at least six in a good environment. It is designed for the International Space Station or similar stations in the near-Earth orbit. Besides, while Soyuz carried up to 100 kilograms, the Clipper can carry up to 500 kilograms and on the return trip up to a ton. Most importantly, it will be reusable. It will be able to land not only in a predetermined area, but on concrete airfields on the territory of our country.

These are the basic characteristics of the spaceship. It will fill a real need. A number of proposals are attached. We are considering the procedure of developing it and operating it together with the European Space Agency and some other countries. Time will tell how the process will move forward. At present the mockup of the cargo version is on display in Japan. I don’t know yet, perhaps some more proposals have been made after that exhibition already. We are planning to put it on view at Le Bourget and at MAKS here. You will see it at MAKS and you will then be able to share your impressions.

Q: At MAKS?

Perminov: At MAKS.

Q: Three questions, if I may. How is your partnership going with the American colleagues on the ISS program? The next stage of Russia’s obligations under the program expires next year. What of the future? Second question. What is the current status of the project to launch Soyuz satellites from Kourou space center? And the third question. What are your plans for the development of Baikonur space site in the coming years?

Perminov: I’ll be brief. The relationship with the United States is shaping up normally. The periods of tension are behind us and now everything hinges on the resumption of Shuttle flights after May 15. Our further negotiations and planning beyond 2006 will depend on that.

The plan for 2005 is ready. It has been signed by all the five countries and there are no questions there. But 2006, as you have rightly said, is still in question. But to resolve it and to sit down at the negotiating table we have agreed with the American colleagues that we will do it after May 15, after the flights resume. Everything depends on how the situation will shape up.

As for other projects together with the United States, yes, we have received some proposals on joint exploration of the Moon. Then there will be cooperation under science programs and on rocket engines, for example. Work in all these areas is going according to plan.

Your second question, Soyuz launches from Kourou. These projects are being finalized and we are entering the contract-signing stage. I hope we will be able to invite those of you who wish – a large French delegation is arriving here on April 11, led by the director of the European Space Agency, Jacques Dordain, and we are planning to sign the last set of documents, including a financial contract for starting construction, although it is already underway, Soyuz-2, at Kourou, on April 11.

And then Baikonur. A program is very extensive for Baikonur. I have many times spoken about it. This concerns the modernization of the Zenit launch pad, the construction of Baiterek, a joint venture, a Russian-Kazakh venture has been set up to build the Baiterek launch site. It will be based on Angara.

There are plans to upgrade and improve the properties of Soyuz spacecraft. We have plans for Soyuz-2-1B, it will be moved to Baikonur after tests have been completed at Plesetsk. As for other issues related to Baikonur, they are purely technical issues, and they have been dealt with in a planned manner.

Q: What are the prospects for cooperation with Japan and China related to flights to the Moon in 20 years?

Perminov: You know that Japan and China have energetically engaged in space research, including manned space flights. Well, China has rather focused on manned space flights and its achievements are very impressive. Their first cosmonaut, you know. In the long run, they have plans for flights to the Moon. They will rely on their own potential. They really have flights to the Moon in their program.

As for Japan, I only know that by 2020 or 2025 they have plans to prepare a spacecraft for manned flights and launch it. This is what I know. We have energetically interacted with them in the sphere of manned space flights only in the ISS framework. They have really conducted many experiments there, have provided their scientific instruments to be used in the Russian segment of the station. We have supported those activities and have interacted with them.

Q: What is the current situation related to the creation of vertically integrated companies, holding companies, in the aerospace sector? Have you heard anything about such companies being created? My other question concerns reliability of aerospace equipment and the Federal Space Agency’s related activities. Everyone knows about failures of booster rockets used to launch commercial spacecraft, Soyuz-U at Plesetsk. Spacecraft used in the missile warning system have constantly gone out of order. Arkon-2 has not worked properly. When will a new generation of spacecraft be developed for the Defense Ministry?

Perminov: The government has defined a clear plan for the creation of integrated companies. We have a special program at the Federal Space Agency. The government has virtually approved. We do not regard this as a goal in itself, because Russia’s aerospace industry is quite competitive today inside the country and in the world market, and this pleases us. Therefore, any changes, including the creation of integrated companies has been considered very attentively, in detail, after which we submit our considerations to the government and only go further after we are given the green light by them.

In terms of the creation of such companies, we have strictly acted in line with this program. We have performed it. Naturally, we have looked at what our neighbors have done, analyzed the results of their activities. We have looked at the way integrated companies work, what results the yield. We have acted strictly in line with our plans.

As for reliability of our aerospace hardware, this is a very complex problem. I would rather not say that positive changes have been registered in this sphere. I am somewhat superstitious, and this is very complex hardware. There is always a chance that it will break down. Last year we registered malfunctioning in booster rockets, spacecraft and other space systems. Thank God, we have moved in this direction seeking to prevent such things.

As for the revival of the missile warning system and spacecraft intended for military purposes, as far as I understand, while being involved in the creation of such systems by industries, I know that such projects do exist. They have advanced in this sphere. Financing has been stepped up for this year, for those projects in particular. I think that serious measures have been taken to improve those activities in line with the Defense Ministry’s orders, and I hope that the results will be positive.

Q: Could you please comment on cooperation with ASEAN member countries, particularly Indonesia and Malaysia? I have heard from the Malaysian ambassador that Russia will take part in the selection of two cosmonauts. They have a whole group there now, and it will be decided whether or not that group will be trained in that country. What about the plans to launch an Indonesian communications satellite? They say there are certain problems. And the last one. Cosmonauts from what countries do you intend to send to space together with Russian cosmonauts?

Perminov: We have not given any country any priority in this respect. But this year, last year, serious measures were taken to broaden international cooperation. We signed a number of serious agreements related to aerospace activities with Brazil, India, France, South Korea and North Korea, other countries. We find this important. It is a market and we should constantly deal with that.

I believe that we have worked quite effectively in this sphere, but we have yet to move to the scale we have planned. And one ruble in every 4-5 rubles invested in the economy, in aerospace industry enterprises comes from outside. It comes due to those contacts. We are proud of that. This means that we can compete in the market.

As for Malaysia, we are helping them to select two cosmonauts. Malaysia has asked us to help in the selection and to help deliver them to the International Space Station, to the Russian segment.

Q: When –?

Perminov: It depends on the scheme that will be chosen to finance the launching of these cosmonauts. As for the selection, we have discussed everything with Mrs. Othman, she is personally responsible for these matters, she is a very energetic minister and she is very fond of space exploration. I am sure that our people have already gone there and are attending to this matter.

After the cosmonauts are selected, we will invite them to the Space Training Center here and they will pass all the necessary tests and then the issue of the timeframe, the training procedure and financing will be addressed.

Regarding the launches from the Biak island, that is a complicated technical issue which involves the creation of an entire transportation system. At this stage we only have the technical project and we have a joint venture, a commercial venture which deals with this issue.

It has the support of the Federal Space Agency, there is no doubt about it. The ambassador rightly said that we are conducting this work. But then everything depends on how the Malaysian side will finance this project, because everything hinges on financing.

Q: You began by saying that space exploration originally was part of big time politics, but now it is shifting towards economics. You have just mentioned some lucrative commercial projects. To what extent is big international business interested in the development of space exploration? Because we are talking all time about budget financing, increased budget financing, etc. Science is also financed out of the state budget.

Perminov: Thank you. Let me stress that at present political rivalry in the field of space exploration is transforming itself into economic rivalry and international joint projects are assessed primarily from the economic point of view: what will be the benefit for the economy of the country in whose interests the launch will take place.

You know that the space market is huge. The figures are impressive – I haven’t got them handy, but they are impressive. Our main work in the market today is in launching spaceships. But if you look at the structure of the world market, for example, space communications systems, the ground equipment of consumers for navigation systems, the structure of remote sensing of the Earth, etc., our presence in that market is insufficient. The structure of Russian participation in the world space market is inadequate and vigorous actions are needed in order to simply break into that market, let alone become established on it.

You have said when asking your questions that we led the world in 2004 in term of launching spaceships. But the space launch market accounts for about 5-10 percent of the space market in the world. Space communications account for 75 percent. And our presence in that market, it accounts for just 50 percent of our space industry. Obviously, this is not enough. Whether we like it or not, international space activities will be based on business considerations. I am not now talking about military programs or dual-purpose programs which are developed by each country individually with its own money, although some dual-purpose projects are international.

What is the outlook? I think that the only option for us is to actively penetrate the world market of space services and to compete strongly on this issue. There is no other way for Russia.

Q: It’s about space tourism. I understand that at least two tourists are to be sent. One of them is a Japanese. And who is the other? What country is he from?

Perminov: First of all I would like to say that I fully support space tourism. Not because money could and should be earned in this way. That’s no doubt important. But you see how this area is developing. Private companies have outstripped state-owned companies. And in about five or seven years, I am sure, there will be many private spaceships with tourists circling the Earth.

As for our contribution, yes, we are considering this. And I must say that in terms of reliability private companies are way behind the established program conducted by Russia when it comes to space tourism.

Yes, two candidates are under consideration. One is from Japan, the other is from another country. But this is commerce and it is not done thing to disclose information ahead of time. Both projects are realistic. They are passing tests currently, training has yet to begin. A positive answer is required not only from our side, but from all the five countries taking part in the ISS for tourists to fly. But let us hope that they will pass all the tests and everything will be fine.

Q: When is the flight scheduled?

Perminov: One in 2006 and the other in 2007.

Moderator: Thank you for being so cooperative. And once again, congratulations on the approaching holiday. The press conference is over.

Linked from RuSpace news